Insights form Offense Forecasting & Analysis using Tableau
The second dashboard, Offense Forecasting & Analysis, provides another interactive tool for law enforcement and security professional to prepare for a possible increase of criminal incidents as we approach the holiday season this year. The above visualization that takes the foreground is a time-series analysis of all the criminal incidents and by offense. The forecasts provide a 90% wide confidence interval for each offense. By clicking on the legend to the left users can focus and zoom into the offenses of interest. The forecasting model used is from Tableau’s capability that includes possible seasonality trends every 2 years from our overall 10 year dataset.
Due to the recent trends of COVID-19, the decrease of incidents occurring in the Winter and Spring of 2020 have changed the overall trend. It would appear the fluctuations have all dropped by 30% for each offense category. Therefore, we can infer that criminal incidents for the remainder of the year by season may also drop by an estimated 30%. Below the forecasting tool are additional visualizations for reference. The stacked bar chart provides an annual stacked histogram by offense to see the volume each year. The pie chart to the right also provides a further breakdown of the counts by shift, which includes a filter below to select a year of interest.